The Yankees lost to the Pirates and the Mets lost to the Reds. What a terrible Tuesday for New York baseball.
Don’t expect that to continue, though. The New York Yankees have the second-best record in baseball when coming off of a loss this season at 15-6. The only team with a better record is their crosstown rival Mets, who are 23-7.
Below we preview tonight’s game in Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. ET, YES Network), where the Yankees find themselves as sizable favorites once again.
Yankees vs. Pirates odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: NYY -1.5 (-125) vs. PIT +1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: NYY (-200) vs. PIT (+165)
Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
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Yankees vs. Pirates probable pitchers
Luis Severino (4-3, 3.35) vs. Mitch Keller (2-5, 5.14)
Yankees vs. Pirates prediction
Yesterday’s loss was at least a little surprising after the Yankees racked up 10 hits and only two runs. However, the Pirates are actually beginning to turn a corner as a franchise with some legitimate young talent.
Between Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Jake Swuniski, and Oneil Cruz, the young core in Pittsburgh should make them legitimate problems in the years to come (if no one gets traded). Their 33-47 record is actually significantly better than their expectations heading into the season.
The need for improvement will have to come from their pitching staff, which is absent of young talent. Look no further than the players they have traded away.
These players consist of Cy Young candidates Joe Musgrove and Gerrit Cole. To add to the pain, they also moved Clay Holmes (0.49 ERA) and Tyler Glasnow who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Their current young pitching talents consist of Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller.
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Keller was a top 100 prospect by MLB pipeline when he entered the big leagues but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. His 5.14 ERA is bloated, but all of his peripheral stats show that some positive regression should be coming.
He actually represents the best play of this game as his projected strikeout total is quite low. Keller to strikeout ‘over‘ 3.5 batters comes in at -135 at the time of writing. He has eclipsed this number in five of his last six contests including three straight.
The Yankees lineup is surely to blame for this low number, but he did strikeout five in June against the Dodgers (while also walking five). This shows that the Pirates let Keller work through trouble, so this isn’t a spot where he is likely to be pulled after an early jam.
The Yankees will likely win this one but at -200, the moneyline is too high to be worth a bet. However, the run line coming in at -125 could be a spot to target, as the Yankees are 12-9 on the run-line when coming off a loss.
For now, that is just a lean rather than an official play. The only one comes in on Mitch Keller ‘over’ 3.5 strikeouts for the final game of this two-game set.
MLB picks today
Mitch Keller ‘over’ 3.5 strikeouts -135 (BetMGM)